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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.